Real estate agents are less enthusiastic than they should be, since volume is only off by about three sales from the monthly average for April, and trhree-quarters of the 16 sales were over the $1 million mark, similar to statistics for March. In fact, once the high and low prices and markups are removed from the monthly totals, the remaining sales averaged exactly the same 22.1-percent markup in both March and April. Lowest price in April was $745,000, but the average for the four under-$1 million sales was $865,000, still very high in historical terms.

And while three of the sales were for houses which had been on the market for over a year, six of the reported sales were arranged in 10 days or less, an indication that if houses are properly priced, they will sell right away. In other words, there are plenty of buyers out there, but they’re becoming very price-conscious, and with some uncertainty in the market they are not willing to risk overpaying for such a big investment. And for some reason this has been a late-blooming spring market, and many owners are only now choosing to list their houses.

The condominium market, on the other hand, is bursting. After six sales in the first three months averaging 26 percent above valuation, there were five more in April alone, with an average markup of 32 percent. Only one of the sales was over $1 million and another apartment sold for only $369,000, but the others were fairly close to the average $751,025.

April saw four house sales in the Circle Road area and one more on Roslyn Avenue north of the city limits, two in eastern Notre Dame de Grâce and one on Cedar Avenue just east of Westmount. Prices are down about 10 percent, year-over-year in the latter two districts, about even in the northern area of adjacent-Westmount where volume has doubled compared to last year, while it is only half what it was last year to the east and west of the city limits.

Prices moved up but volume was very low in March this year, with three $2 million-plus sales reported by local realtors as they heralded what is usually the busiest time of year for the local market.

Only nine sales have been logged as accepted offers in March, which typically sees about 20 sales and last year recorded 16. It is down from 13 sales in February and is the lowest volume for a March (in Westmount) since 2001. The three sales over $2 million — including one over $3 million — and four more between $1,200,000 and $1,710,000 were enough to bring the average of the nine sales to $1,755,833, even with the two lowest prices below $900,000. The average markup is 39 percent, the highest ever compared to the 2011 valuation roll, but it is boosted by one sale at well over double the municipal tax value. With that plus other extremes removed, the adjusted price goes down slightly in March, but certainly not enough to indicate that the market has turned down.

In considering the first-quarter average for 2013, in fact, the value of the “typical” Westmount house is up 5.5 percent compared to the previous quarter and now at its highest quarterly average ever, basically $1,550,000.

Three condominium sales were reported in March, bringing the total for the first quarter to six, of which only one involves a share of a triplex, all the others are apartments. With the triplex flat at $360,000 and one apartment selling for $700,000, all the others are between $515,000 and $585,000. The markup over valuation in the quarter is 26 percent compared to 32 percent for one- and two-family dwellings, so the difference is hardly significant.

Three of the nine home sales in March were on the market less than 10 days and one more less than a month, but the others had been listed for quite some time; this indicates that there is plenty of demand for Westmount real estate, and the problem is supply, at least in the range of $1 million to $2 million.

Adjacent Westmount saw four single-family sales, two in eastern Notre Dame de Grâce, one on Circle Road and one on Richelieu Place in downtown Montreal. So far this year there have been eight home sales in adjacent-Westmount, of which three were $1 million or more.

The Montreal Real Estate Board highlighted its February monthly report by talking about a decrease in sales volume of 22 percent compared to February last year. The 13 sales in Westmount are well below the 21 posted last year, but not too bad compared to the 16.1 average in the last dozen years. And after a relatively static adjusted price during 2012, if appears the spring demand is going to push prices up strongly in 2013.

Two sales over $3 million in February gave new life to the top end of the Westmount market; only one other house has sold over $3 million since last April, in terms of accepted offers. Nine of 13 sales agreements posted last month were for more than $1 million, and six of the 13 were listed for less than 30 days, an indication that there is a strong interest in local real estate as we move into spring.

February also saw a minimum price of $570,000, lower than all but two prices registered in the past year, involving a house which had been on the market since last April. Another three sales were recorded between $730,000 and $862,500. Only one sale was posted for less than municipal evaluation and markups were as high as 58 percent above tax value, with an average 27 percent markup.

Only two condominium apartments sold in February, bringing the total for the year to three, all between $500,000 and $600,000. In February last year eight condo sales were posted, so it is clear the interest in that type of property is down substantially.

Four houses sold in adjacent-Westmount districts in February, one each in eastern Notre Dame de Grâce and southern Côte des Neiges, two just east of the city limits, one of them over $2 million. Three of the four were sold within 10 days of listing, an indication of strong demand in those neighbourhoods, too.

So despite government efforts to put a lid on the national real estate “bubble,” it appears the Westmount market is headed for new heights.

Often the market drops late in a year as sellers clear out the houses which have not sold, then leaps forward as buyers, hoping to move in the summer months, begin searching for their new homes. This year is no exception as the “typical” Westmount house remained at the $1,575,000 peak level reached in December, with five single-family dwellings and one duplex receiving offers averaging $1,252,000 with an average markup of 40 percent compared to municipal evaluation. Only two of the sales were below $1 million and the range of prices was very tight, between $975,000 and $1,710,000. Last year saw 33 sales at more than $2 million, but that figure was unattainable in January. So while the maximum price was lower than for any month since September 2011, the minimum price was the highest for any month since January, 2011. The average markup for all last year was only 25.6 percent, so the 40-percent markup last month is significant.

The result of the sharp surge in the last two months will only be reflected by the upcoming spring market. At this point it appears obvious that the minority Parti Québécois government is having little effect on demand for Westmount houses, and the continued low interest rates are not hurting, either. The government is trying to deflate the Canada-wide real estate “bubble” but when this will affect the top of the Montreal-area market is hard to determine.

While agents are getting ready for a busy house-buying season, the same cannot be said for condominiums. Only one Westmount condo sale was posted in January, but then, only two were posted in January last year while eight were posted in February and five in March. No new house sales were announced in January for adjacent-Westmount areas, though two condominiums — one the upper unit in a made-over duplex on Notre Dame de Grâce Avenue, the other a high-rise apartment just east of Westrmount — were sold through the MLS System.

At this point 134 houses are listed for sale in Westmount, of which 54 — 40 percent — are priced over $2 million. Only 20 have asking prices under $1 million.

Seven home sales were posted for December, normally the slowest month of the year, bringing the total number for 2012 to 152 sales, down eight from 2011 but five more than in 2010. Of the seven December sales, two were for more than $2 million and only one was less than $1 million, giving some hope that the top end of the Westmount market had not disappeared with the election of a Parti Québécois government. The December sales are particularly important this year because by then they should have fully absorbed the impact of that (Sept. 4) election.

For the year, total sales volume is 152 compared to a 15-year average 175, but in fact in there were fewer sales both in 2008 and 2010, and with the million-dollar prices that Westmounters can expect for most houses, the buyer population has obviously dropped off in recent years.

Three condominium sales in December brought the total for the fourth quarter of last year to 10, doubling the five which were posted in the third quarter. Prices stayed quite even, some 20 percent above city tax value; in the four quarters last year the average markup ranged from 17 percent to 21 percent. Prices ranged from $305,000 to $1,550,000, so it is difficult to derive any conclusions from the average price. Two more condos at 11 Hillside Avenue sold in December, but the building has yet to be evaluated so the markups cannot be included in the statistics. A co-op apartment at 376 Redfern Ave.also sold in December.

In adjacent-Westmount, one triplex in eastern Notre Dame de Grâce, a duplex in Shaughnessy Village, a house on Redpath Place and three condominiums just east of Westmount rounded out the December sales. For the year, every adjacent-Westmount district saw increases of average markups except for the Trafalgar-Daulac district just to the east of Westmount, where markups were down 4.6 percent for houses, 2.4 percent for condominiums. Volume was lower in almost all districts.

The “typical” Westmount house is now selling at about $1,500,000, a level it has maintained since March this year, meaning the average markup is hovering around the 25-percent mark when compared to the municipal evaluation. While six sales were recorded in a range between $685,000 and $975,000 in October, only one house in November sold in that range, at $789,000. The latest figures show only 20 houses being offered for less than $1 million, while 60 have prices over $2 million. So far this year agents have posted sales of 144 houses through November, compared to 151 for 11 months last year and 137 in 2010, so volume is still reasonable.

Condominium sales volume is higher this year than last, but the average price of $748,016 is almost exactly the same, and the markup of 19 percent compares to the average of 18 percent for all of 2011. Still, the average price for condos is up almost 20 percent compared to 2010. Only two condo sales were posted in the fourth quarter of last year; so far in 2012 we have six sales, with December still to come.

Adjacent Westmount was busy, too, with two house sales in each of the districts except eastern Notre Dame de Grâce, where none were reported. Obviously the “Golden Square Mile” area of Montreal leads the way in terms of prices: six houses have sold so far this year, all for over $1 million. Only one house in eastern NDG and three in southern Côte des Neiges can claim the same price bracket, and in the “Tradau” (Trafalgar-Daulac) district, seven of 16 sales are for more than $1 million.

Now we should relax for the next month and get ready for a busy spring season in Westmount. Let me wish all the agents and staff of the local realtors, as well as all my readers and friends in Westmount, a healthy and happy holiday season and a prosperous new year.

The only worrying aspect is that only one of the sales was above $1,5 million, and five of the 11 sales were less than $1 million, so the raw average price was just over $1.2 million. Still, the “typical” Westmount house with a valuation of $1,201,709 would be selling for about $1,500,000, basically unchanged since February. The average days-on-market was 64, just about exactly the same as in September and in fact those two statistics are the best since October last year; only three of the 11 houses sold this October were on the market longer than 100 days.

Lowest price in October was $685,000 for a house on Somerville Avenue, while a totally-renovated house on Argyle Avenue brought $2,608,000, but the range within those two extremes was $840,000 to $1,475,000. The lowest markup was 9 percent and the highest was 61 percent; both higher than they had been in any month since June.

More and more houses are coming on the market asking $3 million and higher — there were 38 at last count — while only five have sold this year (through the MLS system), and none since April. So the top of the market is very shaky, even shakier since the provincial election, but the rest of it appears to have maintained its strength.

Only one condominium sold in October, starting the fourth quarter of 2012, so it is virtually impossible to make any statistics around it. The only thing that can be said is that the average price of condos sold this year is only slightly higher than last year, and the average markup for the year is almost exactly the same as last year.

Only one single-family house in adjacent-Westmount — on Grey Avenue — sold in October, along with a triplex on Seymour Street.

Last November recorded 18 transactions in Westmount and the average over the past dozen years is 15, so the volume in the coming month will be a good indication of the strength of the market heading into next year.

The low number of sales has a tendency to skew the price figures, and though the adjusted average price moved up slightly, the main message is that the market has not completely collapsed, just gone on “hold” until buyers determine the impact of a minority government on their major investment.

In 1994, when Daniel Johnson, Jr., took over the Liberal Party from Robert Bourassa and then lost the September election to Jacques Parizeau, Westmount suffered its worst volume in recent history, and in fact only three sales were posted in September. Other than that, the six sales logged this year match the September volume in 1991 and 2001, but except for those years, this is the lowest for a September in the last quarter=century. On a year-to-date basis, 2012 has been fairly good compared to the past five years; September heralds the lowest monthly volume so far this year.

Five condominium sales last month indicated an improvement in that market, compared with one each in July and August. All five in September were high-rise apartments, one in the newly-constructed 11 Hillside Ave. building and one at 1250 Greene Ave., now nearing completion. Among the resales, prices have moved up only slightly in the past year, with sale prices averaging about 18 percent above municipal valuation in both 2011 and 2012.

Things were slow in adjacent-Westmount, as well, with only two homes sold, one just north of Westmount and the other just east. In September last year there were 10 sales reported, bringing the total in all adjacent-Westmount areas (including the “Golden Square Mile”) for the first nine months to 62, 72 for the entire year. This year there have been only 45 one- and two-family dwelling sales so far.

Perhaps indicative of the buyers’ heistancy, eight rentals were reported in September, of which four were houses.

The average price of a Westmount home tumbled from over $1.5 million down to about $1,475,000 in August, though agents did post nine sales in the month compared with only four in August last year, when vendors were unwilling to let their houses go for less than $1 million. This year, of the nine sales, five were under $1 million and one topped the $2 million mark, so only four sold in the median range between $1 million and $2 million. The lowest price was $760,000.

Even though prices are easing back now, however, the adjusted price of $1,513,843 in 113 sales this year is some eight percent over the adjusted price for 2011. The turn to a buyer’s market has only been noticeable in the last two months. Our initial reaction following the Sept. 4 election was that the “waiting period” was over, but in the past week we have seen a dirth of buyers and more inquiries about selling than we are used to.

Perhaps more discouraging is the complete lack of condominium sales in Westmount, both for July and August; one more condo sale was posted as having taken place in June, but the statistic for the third  quarter of 2012 is still zero.

In adjacent-Westmount, two houses and a duplex in southern Côte des Neiges, two houses in eastern Notre Dame de Grâce and one more in western Ville Marie brought prices between $640,000 and $950,000, an indication that there is still activity in the under-$1 million market but the more expensive houses in Westmount are going to have to ease off. Even the big condominium buildings on Westmount’s eastern border saw no activity in August.

Agents have also arranged five house rentals in the past two months, about the same number as last year, so it does not seem that potential buyers are choosing this option.

Six out of the thirteen sales posted in July brought prices under $1 million, the lowest at $605,000 and three others less than $800,000. Another four ranged in price from $1 to $1.2 million, and two tied for the highest price of $1,900,000, fairly modest by Westmount standards. Average price was $1,096,923 compared with $1,372,250 in June, but the adjusted average markup is still 22 percent and the figure has wavered only slightly for most of this year.

Volume in July was actually more than in June, somewhat surprising considering we are moving into an election period which usually causes a slow-down in sales. We suspect that the bargain hunters are responsible for the surge, gambling on the outcome of the election to get a foothold in Westmount.

Still, no condos sold in Westmount in July, though three units in apartment buildings just east of the city limits brought prices from $450,000 to $800,000. The only other adjacent-Westmount sale was a duplex in Côte des Neiges, an indication that pre-election jitters were holding back the buyers.

So far this year 102 sales have been posted, compared to 106 through July last year but stronger than the year-to-date volume for 2009 or 2010. The 13 sales in July compares with an average of only 10.9 for the month generally, but buyers are likely to hold off on making offers now until after the election.

House rentals are moving at about the same pace this year as last year, though the rates have moved up significantly. In the first seven months of 2011 the top rate obtained in Westmount was $7,000 per month; this year three houses have rented for more than that, with a top rate of $8,400 a month. The average of 19 house rentals last year was just over $4,340 per month; this year the average of 20 rentals is $5,270 per month.